Jobs will return — in 2012
Despite the first signs of economic growth in more than a year, many factors will keep a jobs recovery from occurring for a long time.
The economy is growing again. So when are the jobs that go with growth going to get here?
Not anytime soon, unfortunately.
The consensus forecast is that job losses will continue through the end of this year, with many economists not expecting unemployment to peak until next summer. That will add to the 7.2 million jobs already lost in this downturn.
Even with Thursday’s report that showed the economy grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter, the continued job losses are not a shock.
Jobs are what are known as a trailing or lagging indicator
The real worry is that the deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression will be followed by a jobless recovery, just like what happened after the recessions in 1990-1991 and 2001.
It took almost two years after the end of the 2001 recession before the economy started adding jobs on a consistent basis. And it wasn’t until February 2005 until the job market got back to the employment levels of four years earlier.
Some economists argue that the job losses in this downturn will prompt employers to start hiring at a rapid clip soon after the economy starts to improve.
source: money.cnn
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